Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 22.254205 26.698608 31.581984 37.317275 43.838907 50.994349 59.408223
2025-08-10 15.262380 20.951478 27.845513 36.688733 47.596632 60.473637 76.676471
2025-08-17 11.674712 17.860049 25.952029 37.040031 51.540082 69.548347 93.261378
2025-08-24 9.127399 15.402964 24.188619 36.924855 54.405429 77.020052 107.882279
2025-08-31 6.975315 12.980548 21.961443 35.691121 55.389657 81.823195 119.048142
2025-09-07 5.820669 11.798360 21.257382 36.370578 58.847964 89.900336 134.717031
2025-09-14 4.621448 10.270467 19.757690 35.618201 60.073865 94.841865 146.233626
2025-09-21 3.964422 9.542350 19.396252 36.499595 63.655784 103.157808 162.657574
2025-09-28 3.037231 8.084691 17.575784 34.809857 63.135558 105.449619 170.577612
2025-10-05 2.686581 7.705223 17.579388 36.091534 67.257929 114.672866 188.730107
2025-10-12 2.338942 7.249000 17.366387 36.950709 70.711986 122.995593 205.821839
2025-10-19 2.029966 6.804746 17.105055 37.673314 73.944656 131.070051 222.779849
2025-10-26 1.735825 6.357187 16.844854 38.504531 77.636514 140.372963 242.504432
2025-11-02 1.375491 5.627799 15.894190 37.966028 78.991252 146.132228 257.197504
2025-11-09 1.142778 5.172710 15.451936 38.334510 81.908556 154.468902 276.112959
2025-11-16 0.923630 4.671517 14.810201 38.216735 83.912389 161.360855 292.961700
2025-11-23 0.692990 4.020764 13.680158 36.949196 83.694030 164.523198 303.966322
2025-11-30 0.585787 3.768724 13.495249 37.647326 87.149197 173.943482 325.248355
2025-12-07 0.447719 3.313587 12.683467 36.874271 87.730626 178.466073 338.708652
2025-12-14 0.383113 3.145423 12.625518 37.779880 91.600071 188.777266 361.921347
2025-12-21 0.268074 2.641819 11.486676 36.043604 90.114286 189.644705 369.514648
2025-12-28 0.236180 2.566483 11.625910 37.360625 94.839158 201.653197 396.031542
2026-01-04 0.200821 2.443845 11.591130 38.243338 98.711657 212.253523 420.440203